5 Trades taken, Cable, Euro, Dow30, Gold
No real drivers of sentimental moves, no big data, slow moving day, purely technical trading but tough without much respect for intraday levels on the instruments I traded especially sterling at pivot.
Rumors of Iran and Iraq not agreeing to a nine month reduction in output and only agreeing to a six month cut saw a decline in oil mid session however remained up for the day by nearly 1 basis point.
With Oil and equities both bid during the morning session remained risk on technically. However, gold remained bullish throughout the session confusing true risk on sentiment. Dollar remained weak losing to EURO, GBP and AUD, which could have been the reason why gold still showed strength as an inflation hedge on the falling dollar. Also AUD showed strength off the back commodity prices remaining bullish.
Our trading day ended with:
- Indices: S&P500 +0.44%, Nasdaq +0.69%, Dow30 +0.48%, S&P VIX -6.81%, DAX -0.15%, Nikkei225 +0.45%, USD Dollar Index -0.16%, Euro Index +0.25%.
- Commodities: Gold +0.68%, CrudeWTI +0.91%, Copper +0.64%.
- FX Majors: EUR+0.32, GBP -0.20%, JPY -0.15%, AUD +0.24%.
- Fixed Income: 10y -0.08%, 30y -0.06%, Bund -0.27, Gilt +0.13%
Trade 1 – Short Euro, Entry Classic, RR 3:1, Risk $30stp, Reward $100 over two targets.
Euro broke pivot setting up the short and I waited for the classic setup of which I was filled. It quickly broke back above pivot with quite quick momentum stopping me out for a -16 dollar loss on two contracts.
No issue was proved wrong straight away, took the loss and focused on Cable.
Trade 2 – Cable (GBPUSD) Short @ pivot same as Euro, RR worst case 2:1, t1 s1, t2 Thursday low. RR best case 4:1, 130:30 risk.
Summery – Got eaten alive, chopped around pivot, kept my losses small and it eventually went broke above pivot and made a run for the highs. I should have a rule that if a trade doesn’t work out by the second attempt, leave it alone. I was negative -$49 by the end of this trade idea putting pressure on my performance and sticking to risk limits.
Trade 3 – Short Gold at R1, Entry Range play, $RR $4.40: 11.50 (2:1)
Took the trade off, change of entry to r2 better risk reward and also 20 minutes till the US cash open, lack luster volatility or movement I thought it best to take the trade off for close to scratch. Turns out it was the right decision.
Trade 5 – Short GBP Cable at the high at 1.3052, RR 3:1, stop placed above the high.
Summary: Good trade, exactly where everyone was going to take profit short at the high with low daily volatility, no momentum to push it through the levels, plus my bias had been short the entire day, based on Brexit negotiations toughening and also UK lection polls tightening between labour and conservatives. As I had already taken losses I covered 1 contract early on, mid range to lock in profit, and took the second target at pivot. I expected the dollar to be a bit stronger today however it kept on selling off, I needed to be more flexible in my view point during trade 2 and I might of ended up positive for today.