Uncategorized Weekly Plan

Sunday 28th May 2017 – Week Ahead

Calender (Major Releases)

weeklydata.png

Risk Allocation: Monday 10%, Tuesday 30%, Wednesday 40%, Thursday 10%, Friday 10%.

  • Monday – ECB Draghi Speech (Half day US Holiday).
  • Tuesday – GER Inflation Rate, EU Confidence, US PCE Price Index and Consumer Confidence.
  • Wednesday – GB Consumer Confidence, GER Unemployment Rate and Change, EU Unemployment Rate.
  • Thursday – FED Williams Speech.
  • Friday – NFP  US Jobs.

Weekend News

  • Trump political risk is back in focus with the Russia investigation uncovering further evidence of possible collusion with the Russians.
  • G20 Paris climate agreement, possible retraction of the US from agreement.
  • US stocks close high on Friday.
  • Sterling and Euro Slip against the dollar.
  • Gold on the rise, closes near interesting levels.
  • Rig counts increase on Friday on increased numbers Baker Hughes report.
  • Moody’s downgrades Brazil outlook to negative.
  • UK campaigning polling
  • Bonds 10y yields dropping both in the US and Europe.

Week Ahead (biases)

  • Long: Euro Equities: Good Euro Data risk on environment, following trend and prevailing sentiment.
  • Long: Gold – Trump’s admin staying in headlines on Russia probes, if dollar weakens .
  • Long: Euro – Looking for a Retracement in the dollar gains last week against Euro, euro has had better data.
  • Short: Sterling – Election risk, will wait for pullbacks and for a higher short from current levels, basically wait for a pullback then look to short.
  • Short: Crude – increasing rig counts, increasing production out of US, reduction OPEC deal already in place.
  • Short: US equities (NAS100) – correction due (bigger moves to the downside, at these levels), trump admin risk, gold gaining.

Alternative view:

Dollar continues to gain on rate hikes, upcoming data changes sentiment, gold sells off gains from last week and we return to a fully risk on environment. Crude continues rallies on increasing emerging market demand theme.

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