Calender (Major Releases)
Risk Allocation: Monday 10%, Tuesday 30%, Wednesday 40%, Thursday 10%, Friday 10%.
- Monday – ECB Draghi Speech (Half day US Holiday).
- Tuesday – GER Inflation Rate, EU Confidence, US PCE Price Index and Consumer Confidence.
- Wednesday – GB Consumer Confidence, GER Unemployment Rate and Change, EU Unemployment Rate.
- Thursday – FED Williams Speech.
- Friday – NFP US Jobs.
- Trump political risk is back in focus with the Russia investigation uncovering further evidence of possible collusion with the Russians.
- G20 Paris climate agreement, possible retraction of the US from agreement.
- US stocks close high on Friday.
- Sterling and Euro Slip against the dollar.
- Gold on the rise, closes near interesting levels.
- Rig counts increase on Friday on increased numbers Baker Hughes report.
- Moody’s downgrades Brazil outlook to negative.
- UK campaigning polling
- Bonds 10y yields dropping both in the US and Europe.
Week Ahead (biases)
- Long: Euro Equities: Good Euro Data risk on environment, following trend and prevailing sentiment.
- Long: Gold – Trump’s admin staying in headlines on Russia probes, if dollar weakens .
- Long: Euro – Looking for a Retracement in the dollar gains last week against Euro, euro has had better data.
- Short: Sterling – Election risk, will wait for pullbacks and for a higher short from current levels, basically wait for a pullback then look to short.
- Short: Crude – increasing rig counts, increasing production out of US, reduction OPEC deal already in place.
- Short: US equities (NAS100) – correction due (bigger moves to the downside, at these levels), trump admin risk, gold gaining.
Dollar continues to gain on rate hikes, upcoming data changes sentiment, gold sells off gains from last week and we return to a fully risk on environment. Crude continues rallies on increasing emerging market demand theme.