- Asian equities remain steady in the face of US tech sell off continuation.
- All 3 major US stock indices finished down, S&P down 0.9%, Dow down 0.17%, Nasdaq down 0.59%.
- Australia’s ASX200 up +1.2%, Shanghai Comp up +0.4% overall risk sentiment improves over Asia.
- EUR/USD gave up 1.1200 handle selling off during the US afternoon and Asia session.
- Secret talks between Labour and Conservatives on a soft Brexit.
- EU said no agreement reached with UK on start of Brexit negotiations.
- Bank Of Canada hawkish comments, prepared to raise rates and reduce stimulus (growth improving).
- WTI sold off during US session only to retrace losses during the overnight Asia session, finding value around 46.50.
- 09:30 – UK CPI
- 09:30 – UK PPI
- 10:00 – GER ZEW current conditions,
- 10:00 – EUR ECB Lautenschlaeger Speaks
- 10:00 – EUR ZEW economic sentiment
- OPEC Monthly Report (tentative, listen to news wires and squawk)
- 13:30 – US Core PPI
- Crude API Numbers (overnight release)
View on the dollar index (DX 240 chart)
Not much changed in the dollar trend as of late, dollar weighing heavy and maintaining its down trend. The euro making up roughly 51% of the weighting has markedly outperformed the dollar with better than expected economic releases and increased regional stability after the Macron win in France. The coming FED rate hike in June is already priced in and the further scheduled rate hikes in September/December hanging in contention making the dollar less attractive. Donald trump talking the dollar down, the continued bullishness of US stocks all playing its part in keeping current sentiment from changing.
Strategy – Euro, Sterling and Eurostoxx50
Euro – Bias is neutral range plays leaning long (will play the range long and short, with more weight on the long side)
Euro is a tough one for me, I am fundamentally short euro as a whole based on last weeks inflation outlook revision from the ECB and continued support for the current QE program. However, as my only trade-able set is vs the dollar I am long euro against the dollar as I believe recent US data is worse than euro region. Overall, at this point in time, I especially for today, I am looking to play the euro range, with more conviction of longs lower down the range and will enter with more size, lower conviction for shorts higher up with less contract size on positions. I would prefer to be trading EuroPound at this point in time.
Euro Long 1
Cable Short (outright short bias)
Cable bias is to the short side, inflation reading today, a higher reading will look to short from higher up as the pressure on consumers to spend with the depreciating buying power of the pound with rising inflation and stagnant wage growth will further pressure retails sales in the future. Also the current hung parliament political risk giving a more reason on the short bias. On good inflation data would love a short at R2 if we good get there entering in and above 1.28000 or R1 depending on volatility, so two short entries on cable.
Range play with a long bias on Euro Indices inverse of Euro currency, the continuing support of the stimulus pack and revised inflation data means that we are highly unlikely to see any rate hikes over the next 9 months. This bias may change based on global risk sentiment taken from recent US stock declines over the last two days, on the day, bullish but range bound.
Eustx50Long1 (full position size 5 contracts)
Eustx50Long2 (4 contracts)
Eustx50Short1 (3 contracts)