Daily Review

Trade Review

Trade Review Summary

  • 3 trades in total.
  • Short GBP.
  • Short USOIL.
  • Long JPY.
  • Positive day, green across the board.

Trades

Sterling

Trade 1: Sterling x 1 contract

  • Entry: R1 significant level technical level, high of the 14th, has been excellent resistance over the passed week since the election results.
  • Target: Pivot or 1.2800
  • Exit: Testing 1.2800, I needed to get green on the screen and build some positive Pnl after last week. I am taking profit early with one contract trades until I build some margin again.
  • Summary: If I had entered for two could have ridden the entire range, dollar strengthened on hawkish fed commentary across the board, would have been an excellent trade to hold if I had a second contract spare. Took some heat initially trying to get into the trade. We had r2 just above which was an  even better level to enter short, with much higher RR which made me nervous to take the trade on at r1. If I had positive pnl left from last week would have taken the trade with two contracts.

Trade 2:  Sterling x 1 contract

  • Entry: Pivot Break, momentum trade on dollar strength.
  • Target: Low of the day
  • Exit: Again took profit early as I am anxious to build some positive pnl and margin to can take on bigger positions. Keeping risk small and taking profit early for the moment.

GBPEod.png

USOIL

Trade 1: USOil x 1 contract

  • Entry: Short at R1
  • Target: Pivot
  • Exit: 45 dollar handle
  • Summary: Great short, difficult trade, as the better short was higher up and the trade desk strategy was recommending a higher entry, we also tested the level three times, it really felt like buyers wanted to push it higher levels. I could see two way trade near R1, so my hope was that r1 would hold with enough short interest at the level. My target was pivot, again with my current strategy to book profits early to build positive pnl i took at 45 handle after a failure to break pivot. As the day wore on we did eventually break pivot.

OilEod.png

JPY

Trade 1: JPY x 2 contracts

  • Entry: S1 Break, classic pullback (the chart bellow is CFD, was using futures ladder for entry, chart bellow is inverses to futures chart).
    • Dollar Strength accross the board, euro and pound breaking down making new lows.
    • Risk on in Equities, breaking to new all time highs.
    • Yields rising in US treasuries.
  • Target: 111.741
  • Exit: Had to go flat as the trading rules set by my risk manager only permits trading between 8am and 5pm BST.
  • Summary: I closed the position at 4:52pm just before it broke to the upside. Looking at the overnight chart, it took 8 hours to hit my target. Would have been an excellent trade. This trade I used the consolidation and tight range of pre positioning to work some profit in on the position before the break. I could see a clear tight range on the volume profile on the ladder that let me work a better averaged entry price (actual support was around 6 ticks above s1, so I start to average in a better entry as we consolidated before the break). Unfortunately the break happened too late in the day for me to capture the move. I am hoping once I build trust and experience my risk manager will allow me to keep these positions on once de risked passed normal trading hours. This trade made absolute sense everything supported it both technically and fundamentally.

YenEod.png

YenLadderProfile.PNG

Ladder explanation: Originally I took the short at S1, however, it started to trade a tight consolidated range of around 15 ticks. I left my original contract on, but started to buy in with a second contract at higher pricing which averaged my entry at better and better pricing as I played the range with one contract leaving my core 1 contract position on for the bigger move. This slowly build positive pnl before the break, I had very high conviction based on fundamentals and my trade position. I really enjoyed this trade and it hit my target 8 hours later but I was flat way before then.

I watched around 70 hours plus of futures ladder trading, specifically treasury trading and found that superior positioning in entries can be obtained by looking at the distribution of volume at critical levels. You can clearly see where business and trade is being conducted and where fair value lies in the short term, the steps in the volume profile represent the extremities of trade. I used these to find superior entries. Its a little more difficult to take advantage of this executing on cfds as the broker spread and market maker.

 

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