Another positive day yesterday, read yesterdays trade review for colour on how it went down. Sterling is taking a beating post Carney’s outlook and interest rate decision, the bearishness weighted by recent weak wage growth data and no movement on interest rate hikes until the situation changes. Also WTI and Brent continue their downward spiral in the face of OPEC cuts and the larger than expected API draws last night. Profit taking in equities sees a modest decline of throughout the US and overnight Session.
Dollar index weighting, interesting levels. break above the resistance, will short majors against the dollar. If it retraces to the bottom of the range, will again short majors against the dollar. Higher risk reward on weighting would be from the bottom of the range.
Overnight key headlines:
- Asia Equities following US indices trading negatively
- China to include A shares in its emerging market index (research needed)
- BOJ to support continued or support the current easing /stimulus package to further economic expansion but signal a possible tightening in 2018 which produced a recovery in the Yen.
- DUP talks breaking down for conservative majority hopes.
- Dollar remains strong against majors.
- API Draw for WTI, no market reaction, bearish outlook persistent.
- 11:30 UK Queen Speech
- 12:00 UK BOE Member Andy Haldane (dove, voter) Speaks
- 15:00 US m/m Existing home sales exp -0.5%
- 15:00 US May Existing home sales exp 5.55M
- 15:30 US Crude Oil inventories exp -2.106M
- 15:30 US Cushing Oil Inventories prev -1.113M
- 15:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks exp 0.465M
Summary: Remaining onside with current dollar strength sentiment against majors, I am looking for pull backs across currency majors to enter short against the dollar. Sterling is most attractive for shorts based on recent political, electoral, Brexit issues. Yen is my next best trade, looking for high risk reward setup short at R2 to play the the current range, yen rallied overnight on BOJ meeting minutes signalling tightening however I am still bearish based on the outflows to a higher yielding dollar/positive carry. Equities still long from key levels. WTI Short from a retest r1 and the 44 level.
Notes: I wont be trading the US WTI inventories release this week, last week got chewed in the spread, hit my maximum loss per trade in a matter of seconds on CFD, I would have definitely cleaned up on futures, so will rather stay clear of the potential loss/mad spread from a made broker market. Looking forward to existing home sales, with any positive data supporting dollar strength and my Yen short.
Euro short x 2 contracts
GBP short x 2 contracts
JPY Short x 2 contracts
WTI short x 1 contract
S&P500 long x 2 contracts
EuroStoxx50 long x 3 contracts
Disclaimer: There is substantial risk in trading. A loss incurred in connection with futures trading be significant. Target Alpha Trading makes no claims whatsoever regarding passed or future performance. Any Strategy is for educational purposes only.