North Korea Summit, meeting between Kim & Trump.
Trade war, tariff bonanza between US and G7.
Italian political Risk
Taper Tantrum Euro Area QE cuts.
It has been along time since I have posted, but I am back with a new strategy and a new outlook. I had to take some time away from trading to sort my life out and recover from a few heavy losses last year. So to kick off the Sunday night prep I have singled out the major themes/headline news at the moment.
So we have the meeting between Kim and Trump this week and also the fallout and further clarification of the G7 meeting, which didn’t seem to amount to much and had all the G7 leaders pretty confused as to the US stance after Trump left for Singapore.
The G7 meetings were supposed to shed more light on the tariff situation, but things seem to be deteriorating quite quickly with tariffs being levied against Mexico, Canada and Germany.
The USD seems to be in an interesting spot, having been sold off most most of 2017 and early 2018 we see some recent strengthening in the Dollar index. This fits my view from last year that the US is currently in a tightening cycle and holding dollars will yield more in Carry moving forward. The only reason why we haven’t seen real follow through into the USD is the trade war spat that is keeping dollar prices capped.
This weeks data includes US interest rate decision, ECB monetary policy update, BOJ QE economic policy meeting and UK Brexit bill heading to Parliament.
Source (trading economics)
Next week the Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of Japan will be deciding on monetary policy. Key economic data include: US inflation rate, retail trade, industrial output and Michigan consumer sentiment; UK inflation, wage data, unemployment, industrial production, retail sales and trade balance; Eurozone industrial output; Japan machinery orders; China industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment; Australia consumer and business morale; India industrial production and inflation; Turkey Q1 GDP growth.